A statistical reality check

The Dating Reality Check

Set your criteria. See what share of men and women across Europe actually match — counted from official statistics, then nudged toward reality with a shadow-economy income adjustment.

— of women match

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I'm looking for
Age 25–40
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Income basis

Must also be…
Add rougher filters ≈ estimated data

These come from household-level or sparsely-reported data, so treat them as ballpark.

Method & sources

Each filter is treated as an independent pass-rate and multiplied together — the same back-of-envelope model used by every calculator of this kind. Because real traits correlate (taller people earn a little more, and so on), the true pool is somewhat larger than the number shown. The point isn't the decimal; it's how fast stacked criteria collapse the field.

Height is modelled as a normal distribution (national mean, ~7 cm spread). Income is modelled as a log-normal distribution from each country's median earnings and Gini coefficient, split by sex using the gender pay gap. Realistic raises the income distribution by each country's estimated shadow economy as a share of GDP; Official uses reported figures only.

Sources: Eurostat, UN World Population Prospects & national statistics (population); NCD-RisC (height); Eurostat / OECD / World Bank (income & Gini); IMF Medina–Schneider & World Bank (shadow economy); OECD / Eurostat / WHO (education, smoking, employment, and the rougher filters). Full per-field provenance in the repository's SOURCES.md.

For curiosity, not destiny.